Question

Mr．Ulin wrote, “I stumble(困惑)…like one dated December 6, 1996, calling for a 6.0-7.0 along the west coast of Mexico within a month(a 6.8 hit just off the coast of Michoacan on January 11, 1997, only six days late)”(P27 Col.1)．I understand him because this unsuccessful prediction(預言)I had made was reported as “the largest earthquake in this general area since a magnitude(量級)7.0 event on Apr．30, 1986．”by the USGS．Comparing 6 days with the 10-year period, the error(錯誤)is negligible(可以忽略的)．But I do not understand why he did not stumble on my successful predictions, for example, the 6.1 Afghanistan earthquake(on Feb．4, 1998)prediction(2)that has a probability 13％, and a “not weather cloud”(according to the meteorologist)as its precursor in the satellite image(1)．If Mr．Ulin stumbled on my unsuccessful prediction, he should stumble more on this successful prediction, so he should recommend it and its precursor as two powerful positive examples to support his title word “science”; on the other hand, if he did not stumble on this successful prediction, he should expose the both as undoubted negative examples to explain what the meteorologist does not know, and to prove why it belongs to his so-called “lunatic logic of earthquake prediction”to support his other title word “pseudoscience(偽科學)”．Mr．Ulin neighter put the both as positive(積極的)examples, nor negative(消極的)examples, which makes me confused(迷惑不解)．

［問題導入］Do you think it is useful to foretell the nature disaster and why?

A senior scientist’s view：Do further researches on earthquakes in order to predict exactly when and where an earthquake will happen．

A local man’s view：It is impossible to predict when and where the earthquake will happen．

A worker’s view：It’s important to retell the earthquake and it can reduce some lose．

A leader’s view：What we can do to predict the earthquake is important．

A writer’s view：What can we do to keep ourselves safe from an earthquake is necessary if we can’t predict when the earthquake will happen．

My view：________

Answer 1

答案：